We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical policy is unknown. These problems arise in personalized medicine using electronic health records and in internet advertising. Existing approaches use inverse propensity weighting (or, doubly robust versions) to make historical outcome (or, residual) data look like it were generated by a new policy being evaluated or learned. But this relies on a plug-in approach that rejects data points with a decision that disagrees with the new policy, leading to high variance estimates and ineffective learning. We propose a new, balance-based approach that too makes the data look like the new policy but does so directly by finding weights that optimize for balance between the weighted data and the target policy in the given, finite sample, which is equivalent to minimizing worst-case or posterior conditional mean square error.

However, such pessimism for out-of-sample data could be too restricted and sample inefficient, as not all out-of-sample(unseen) states are not generalizable [20].

ComparedtoDeepQ-learning,deeppolicygradient (PG) methods are often more flexible and applicable to discrete and continuous action problems. However, these methods tend to suffer from high sample complexity and training instability since the gradient may not accurately reflect the policy gain when the policy changes substantially [6].

In this paper we deal with the state distributional shift problem commonly encountered in offline reinforcement learning during test, where the agent tends to take unreliable actions at out-of-sample (unseen) states. Our idea is to encourage the agent to follow the so called state recovery principle when taking actions, i.e., besides long-term return, the immediate consequences of the current action should also be taken into account and those capable of recovering the state distribution of the behavior policy are preferred. For this purpose, an inverse dynamics model is learned and employed to guide the state recovery behavior of the new policy. Theoretically, we show that the proposed method helps aligning the transited state distribution of the new policy with the offline dataset at out-of-sample states, without the need of explicitly predicting the transited state distribution, which is usually difficult in high-dimensional and complicated environments. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated with the state-of-the-art performance on the general offline RL benchmarks.

In many real-world reinforcement learning applications, access to the environment is limited to a fixed dataset, instead of direct (online) interaction with the environment. When using this data for either evaluation or training of a new policy, accurate estimates of discounted stationary distribution ratios -- correction terms which quantify the likelihood that the new policy will experience a certain state-action pair normalized by the probability with which the state-action pair appears in the dataset -- can improve accuracy and performance. In this work, we propose an algorithm, DualDICE, for estimating these quantities. In contrast to previous approaches, our algorithm is agnostic to knowledge of the behavior policy (or policies) used to generate the dataset.

In applying reinforcement learning (RL) to high-stakes domains, quantitative and qualitative evaluation using observational data can help practitioners understand the generalization performance of new policies. However, this type of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is inherently limited since offline data may not reflect the distribution shifts resulting from the application of new policies. On the other hand, online evaluation by collecting rollouts according to the new policy is often infeasible, as deploying new policies in these domains can be unsafe. In this work, we propose a semi-offline evaluation framework as an intermediate step between offline and online evaluation, where human users provide annotations of unobserved counterfactual trajectories. While tempting to simply augment existing data with such annotations, we show that this naive approach can lead to biased results.

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is to find a new policy that maximizes the expected reward over the evaluation data. Although the standard OPE and OPL assume the same distribution of covariate between the historical and evaluation data, there often exists a problem of a covariate shift,i.e., the distribution of the covariate of the historical data is different from that of the evaluation data. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bound of OPE under a covariate shift. Then, we propose doubly robust and efficient estimators for OPE and OPL under a covariate shift by using an estimator of the density ratio between the distributions of the historical and evaluation data. We also discuss other possible estimators and compare their theoretical properties. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimators through experiments.

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical policy is unknown. These problems arise in personalized medicine using electronic health records and in internet advertising. Existing approaches use inverse propensity weighting (or, doubly robust versions) to make historical outcome (or, residual) data look like it were generated by a new policy being evaluated or learned. But this relies on a plug-in approach that rejects data points with a decision that disagrees with the new policy, leading to high variance estimates and ineffective learning. We propose a new, balance-based approach that too makes the data look like the new policy but does so directly by finding weights that optimize for balance between the weighted data and the target policy in the given, finite sample, which is equivalent to minimizing worst-case or posterior conditional mean square error.